Geography, Search Frictions and Endogenous Trade Costs -- by Giulia...
We leverage detailed data on vessel movements and shipping contracts to shed new light on world trade costs and trade flows. The data reveal new facts about shipping patterns, and motivate us to build...
View ArticleThe Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output -- by Olivier...
The fact that most of the persistent declines in output since the Great Recession have parlayed into equivalent declines in measures of potential output is commonly interpreted as implying that output...
View ArticleRisk Preferences in Small and Large Stakes: Evidence from Insurance Contract...
We examine risk preferences using the flood insurance decisions of over 100,000 households. In each contract, households make a small stakes decision, the deductible, and a large stakes one, the...
View ArticleIncome Mobility, Income Risk and Welfare -- by Tom Krebs, Pravin Krishna,...
This paper presents a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility and welfare, with ex-ante identical individuals facing a stochastic income process and market...
View ArticleGeographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?...
A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region in a monetary union. Empirical studies of such multipliers have proliferated in...
View ArticleIncentives for Replication in Economics -- by Sebastian Galiani, Paul...
Replication is a critical component of scientific credibility as it increases our confidence in the reliability of the knowledge generated by original research. Yet, replication is the exception rather...
View ArticleRisky Business? The Effect of Majoring in Business on Earnings and...
One of the most important decisions a student can make during the course of his or her college career is the choice of major. The field of study a student selects translates directly into the types of...
View ArticleThe Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old Age...
We examine inferences about old age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial...
View ArticleJuvenile Punishment, High School Graduation and Adult Crime: Evidence from...
This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of juvenile punishment on adult criminal recidivism and high school completion. We link the universe of case files of those who were convicted of a...
View ArticleBalance-Sheet Diversification in General Equilibrium: Identification and...
The paper uses disaggregated data on asset holdings and liabilities to estimate a general equilibrium model where each institution determines the diversification and size of the asset and liability...
View ArticleLong-Term Trends in Private School Enrollments by Family Income -- by Richard...
We use data from multiple national surveys to describe trends in private elementary school enrollment by family income from 1968-2013. We note several important trends. First, the private school...
View ArticleMaking the House a Home: The Stimulative Effect of Home Purchases on...
We introduce and quantify a new channel through which the housing market affects household spending: the home purchase channel. Using an event-study design with data from the Consumer Expenditure...
View ArticleIdentification in Ascending Auctions, with an Application to Digital Rights...
This study provides new identification and estimation results for ascending (traditional English or online) auctions with unobserved auction-level heterogeneity and an unknown number of bidders. When...
View ArticleUsing Instrumental Variables for Inference about Policy Relevant Treatment...
We propose a method for using instrumental variables (IV) to draw inference about causal effects for individuals other than those affected by the instrument at hand. Policy relevance and external...
View ArticleCan Financial Incentives Help People Trying to Establish New Habits?...
We conducted a randomized controlled trial testing the effect of modest incentives to attend the gym among new members of a fitness facility, a population that is already engaged in trying to change a...
View ArticleThe Geography of Consumption -- by Sumit Agarwal, J. Bradford Jensen,...
We use detailed information from U.S. consumers' credit card purchases to provide the first large-scale description of the geography of consumption. We find that consumers' mobility is quite limited...
View ArticleChoosing Your Pond: Revealed-Preference Estimates of Relative Income Concerns...
We provide a unique revealed-preference test of the hypothesis that, in addition to their absolute level of consumption, individuals care about their relative consumption. We study the decisions of...
View ArticleA Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy -- by...
A productive capacity generates output and risks, both of which need to be absorbed by economic agents. If they are unable to do so, output and risk gaps emerge. Risk gaps close quickly: A decline in...
View ArticleDoes It Matter How and How Much Politicians are Paid? -- by Duha T. Altindag,...
An important question in representative democracies is how to ensure that politicians behave in the best interest of citizens rather than their own private interests. Aside from elections, one of the...
View ArticleThe Capital Structure of Nations -- by Patrick Bolton, Haizhou Huang
When a nation can finance its investments via foreign-currency denominated debt or domestic-currency claims, what is the optimal capital structure of the nation? Building on the functions of fiat money...
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